N.B.A. Finals Preview

One key matchup will be Kawhi Leonard guarding LeBron James.

 

Ever since the Oklahoma City Thunder were eliminated by the Memphis Grizzlies, the league has probably been rooting for one particular matchup for their Finals. And when LeBron James and the rest of the Miami Heat steamrolled the Indiana Pacers in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the N.B.A. got what they were looking for. Featuring the league’s best player in LeBron James and best team in the Miami Heat, facing off against the ageless wonders of the San Antonio Spurs’ “Big Three” and co., these finals have plenty of storylines. Will the long layoff help or hurt San Antonio? Who will guard LeBron James, Tony Parker, and Tim Duncan? Needless to say these Finals may be one of the most engaging, and riveting Finals that we have seen in a long time.

The first question that must be addressed is: How will the long nine day layoff affect the Spurs? There are two reasons why I believe the Spurs will not be affected by this huge layoff. The first is the presence of Gregg Popovich and the veteran leadership of the Spurs. If any team in the N.B.A. is built to handle the “rust” that comes with the long layoff between series it is the Spurs with their all-time great coach and veteran leadership. The second and most important reason the Spurs will not be affected by the layoff is that the Spurs have experience with this amount of rest and have been successful with it. Three out of the last four times the Spurs have won the championship has been with an extended rest of 7 days or more. In 1999 the Spurs (like this year) had a nine day layoff before facing the New York Knicks in the Finals. After holding the Knicks to under 80 PPG in the series (79.8) the Spurs won the series in five games. In 2005 and 2007 the Spurs had 7 days off before facing their opponent in the Finals. Both series they won beating the Pistons in 7 games in 05, and dominating the LeBron James led Cleveland Cavaliers for a sweep in 07. Having a long layoff also has helped historically on the N.B.A. playoffs. Since the current N.B.A. playoffs format started in the 83-84 season, teams with at least 7 days off have a series record of 20-10 or a .666% winning percentage. Additionally there have been 6 finals played between one team that has swept their Conference Finals opponent, and one that defeated their opponent in 7 games. The team that has swept their opponent in the Conference Finals is 4-2 in the N.B.A. Finals. Not only will this long nine day layoff not hurt the Spurs to start these Finals, it will actually benefit them in the long run over the series.

One of the keys to an N.B.A. playoff series is the different matchups that are on the floor. In these Finals each team has matchups that can be exploited to their advantage. Starting with the Miami Heat, the obvious matchup advantage is LeBron James being guarded by Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. While Leonard in particular will probably do a very good job on LeBron, there is no such thing as guarding “The King”. James will put up his numbers but the mismatch goes beyond LeBron James. Whether it is Chris Bosh, Shane Battier, Mike Miller, or Ray Allen, Miami will be able to stretch the floor with their shooters causing the “bigs” of San Antonio to have to come out and be uncomfortable. If Miami’s perimeter shooters can knock down shots, it will open up driving lanes for LeBron and Dwyane Wade. On the flipside, San Antonio has two key matchup advantages. The first is in the post, where Miami just came off a series being dominated down low by Roy Hibbert. Expect Tim Duncan to have a monster series as he is more versatile and skilled then Hibbert in the low post. The second matchup advantage for the Spurs is at the point guard position. Tony Parker just came off a series in which he dominated All-N.B.A. defenders Tony Allen and Mike Conley. Mario Chalmers and Dwyane Wade should be no match compared to Memphis’ backcourt. Expect Parker to explode for huge games causing Heat coach Erik Spoelstra to change up his defense. LeBron James might get a crack at Parker in late game situations as the Heat will be struggling all series to bottle up the dynamic point guard. In the end, I believe the Spurs “Big Three” will outplay Miami’s (maybe big one with two solid players). Tony Parker and Tim Duncan will both have huge series, outshining the always tremendous play of LeBron James. Miami’s role players will show up, but not consistently enough to beat the Spurs.

Prediction: San Antonio in 6

M.V.P.: Tony Parker

 

Yoni Pollak’s Prediction:

Miami in 6

M.V.P.: LeBron James

 

Yoni Levine’s Prediction:

Miami in 5

M.V.P.: LeBron James

N.B.A. Conference Finals Preview

Eastern Conference

1.      1..  Miami Heat vs. 3. Indiana Pacers

It was always supposed to be Heat vs. Knicks, LeBron vs. Melo (at least that’s what the N.B.A. had hoped for). However instead of the inconsistent Knicks, the Indiana Pacers will face off against the Miami Heat for Eastern Conference supremacy.

Will Lebron and co. be able to get by Paul George and the defensive minded Pacers?

Conference Semifinals Preview

Conference Semifinals Preview

Eastern Conference

1.        1. Miami Heat vs. 5. Chicago Bulls

The Heat are coming off a relatively routine sweep of the Milwaukee Bucks in their first round series. On the flipside, Chicago enters after a grueling 7 game thriller with the Brooklyn Nets. Health will be a big factor in this series as Louel Deng, Nate Robinson, Taj Gibson, and Kirk Hinrich were all battling some kind of ailment whether injury or virus related toward the end of the series with the Nets. When healthy, the combo of Deng, and super defender Jimmy Butler can cause havoc defensively for Miami’s all pro’s Dwayne Wade and LeBron James. Each game will be a battle, but ultimately, Miami is too deep, too talented, and too balanced for the Bulls

NBA Western Conference First Round Preview and Predictions

1. 1.  Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8. Houston Rockets

It what looks like potentially the most entertaining series of the first round in either conference, James Harden and the Rockets square off with his former team the Oklahoma City Thunder. Led by Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka, the Thunder, with their young core continue to grow as a basketball team having gone deeper in the playoffs each of the last three years capped by a five game defeat in the Finals at the hands of the Miami Heat. Is this the year the Thunder take the biggest step of their development and win the championship? To do so they will have to get past the young explosive Rockets. With former Thunder sixth man James Harden having an MVP like season and the Rockets leading the league in scoring offense will be at a premium. However, when it comes down to it defense wins in the playoffs, and the rockets don’t play any of it especially to unseat the West’s best team.

Prediction: Thunder in 6

Eastern Conference First Round Playoffs Preview and Prediction

           1. Miami Heat vs. 8.Milwaukee Bucks

The Miami Heat are the league’s best team, led by the league’s best player; Lebron James. Along with fellow superstar Dwayne Wade and the supporting cast of Chris Bosh, Mario Chalmers and sharpshooters, Ray Allen and Shane Battier, Miami has the depth and firepower matched by few teams in recent history. Milwaukee counters coming into the playoffs with a losing record while giving over 100 points per game on the season. Second year pro Larry Sanders has been a bright spot this year averaging close to 3 blocks per game and Monta Ellis Brandon Jennings can provide explosive scoring to keep pace with Miami…….for a couple of quarters.

Prediction: Miami in 4