N.B.A. Finals Preview

One key matchup will be Kawhi Leonard guarding LeBron James.

 

Ever since the Oklahoma City Thunder were eliminated by the Memphis Grizzlies, the league has probably been rooting for one particular matchup for their Finals. And when LeBron James and the rest of the Miami Heat steamrolled the Indiana Pacers in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the N.B.A. got what they were looking for. Featuring the league’s best player in LeBron James and best team in the Miami Heat, facing off against the ageless wonders of the San Antonio Spurs’ “Big Three” and co., these finals have plenty of storylines. Will the long layoff help or hurt San Antonio? Who will guard LeBron James, Tony Parker, and Tim Duncan? Needless to say these Finals may be one of the most engaging, and riveting Finals that we have seen in a long time.

The first question that must be addressed is: How will the long nine day layoff affect the Spurs? There are two reasons why I believe the Spurs will not be affected by this huge layoff. The first is the presence of Gregg Popovich and the veteran leadership of the Spurs. If any team in the N.B.A. is built to handle the “rust” that comes with the long layoff between series it is the Spurs with their all-time great coach and veteran leadership. The second and most important reason the Spurs will not be affected by the layoff is that the Spurs have experience with this amount of rest and have been successful with it. Three out of the last four times the Spurs have won the championship has been with an extended rest of 7 days or more. In 1999 the Spurs (like this year) had a nine day layoff before facing the New York Knicks in the Finals. After holding the Knicks to under 80 PPG in the series (79.8) the Spurs won the series in five games. In 2005 and 2007 the Spurs had 7 days off before facing their opponent in the Finals. Both series they won beating the Pistons in 7 games in 05, and dominating the LeBron James led Cleveland Cavaliers for a sweep in 07. Having a long layoff also has helped historically on the N.B.A. playoffs. Since the current N.B.A. playoffs format started in the 83-84 season, teams with at least 7 days off have a series record of 20-10 or a .666% winning percentage. Additionally there have been 6 finals played between one team that has swept their Conference Finals opponent, and one that defeated their opponent in 7 games. The team that has swept their opponent in the Conference Finals is 4-2 in the N.B.A. Finals. Not only will this long nine day layoff not hurt the Spurs to start these Finals, it will actually benefit them in the long run over the series.

One of the keys to an N.B.A. playoff series is the different matchups that are on the floor. In these Finals each team has matchups that can be exploited to their advantage. Starting with the Miami Heat, the obvious matchup advantage is LeBron James being guarded by Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. While Leonard in particular will probably do a very good job on LeBron, there is no such thing as guarding “The King”. James will put up his numbers but the mismatch goes beyond LeBron James. Whether it is Chris Bosh, Shane Battier, Mike Miller, or Ray Allen, Miami will be able to stretch the floor with their shooters causing the “bigs” of San Antonio to have to come out and be uncomfortable. If Miami’s perimeter shooters can knock down shots, it will open up driving lanes for LeBron and Dwyane Wade. On the flipside, San Antonio has two key matchup advantages. The first is in the post, where Miami just came off a series being dominated down low by Roy Hibbert. Expect Tim Duncan to have a monster series as he is more versatile and skilled then Hibbert in the low post. The second matchup advantage for the Spurs is at the point guard position. Tony Parker just came off a series in which he dominated All-N.B.A. defenders Tony Allen and Mike Conley. Mario Chalmers and Dwyane Wade should be no match compared to Memphis’ backcourt. Expect Parker to explode for huge games causing Heat coach Erik Spoelstra to change up his defense. LeBron James might get a crack at Parker in late game situations as the Heat will be struggling all series to bottle up the dynamic point guard. In the end, I believe the Spurs “Big Three” will outplay Miami’s (maybe big one with two solid players). Tony Parker and Tim Duncan will both have huge series, outshining the always tremendous play of LeBron James. Miami’s role players will show up, but not consistently enough to beat the Spurs.

Prediction: San Antonio in 6

M.V.P.: Tony Parker

 

Yoni Pollak’s Prediction:

Miami in 6

M.V.P.: LeBron James

 

Yoni Levine’s Prediction:

Miami in 5

M.V.P.: LeBron James